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Predictions of the dissolution of the Soviet Union
There were people and organizations who predicted that the USSR would fall before the eventual dissolution of the USSR in 1991.〔Historians point to dissolution beginning with the Polish Round Table Agreement in 1989〕
Authors often credited with having predicted the dissolution of the Soviet Union include Andrei Amalrik in ''Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?'' (1970), French academic Emmanuel Todd in ''La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique (The Final Fall: An essay on the decomposition of the Soviet sphere)'' (1976), economist Ravi Batra in his 1978 book ''The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism'' and French historian Hélène Carrère d'Encausse.〔
〕 Additionally, Walter Laqueur notes that "Various articles that appeared in professional journals such as ''Problems of Communism'' and ''Survey'' dealt with the decay and the possible downfall of the Soviet regime." Some US conservatives, view Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative as not only predicting but causing the dissolution of the USSR.
Whether any particular prediction was ''correct'' is still a matter of debate, since they give differing reasons for the Soviet collapse.
==Conventional wisdom discounting a collapse==
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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